I recently came across this article titled US Watching More TV than Ever, and it made me start thinking about how will the Japanese market be in 3 years (2011).
In 2011 Japan will stop using analog TVs and force everyone to switch to Digital TV, nowadays there`s a massive campaign going on to promote Digital TV to the population, you can already watch most of the channels in HDTV and also on your mobile phone through One-seg.
Recently One-Seg add ons for the Nintendo DS and PSP were also launched so even if your mobile phone is not One-Seg ready, you can still watch your favorite TV show on your way back from work.
Another interesting trend is that even when having a TV in their living room, some of the young kids use their cellphones in bed to watch TV, when their parents are using it to watch some other channel, apparently not caring much for the less-than-3-inches screen.
Also if you consider that much of the video watched online is originaly from some TV station, my guess is that also in Japan comercial TV is going to be fine.
However it`s also true that the cost to produce video has fallen dramatically in the recent years, nowadays you have semi-pro HDTV cameras capable of recording at broadcast standards, with some programs actually using them due to their extreme mobility and low cost.
Also the distribution channels available have exploded, you have analog TV, digital TV, cable TV, satellite TV, Internet, DVD, Blu-Ray, In-store TVs, In-taxi TVs, In-train TVs and older medias. However what is being said is that with so many options, what will happen is that there will be a shortage of video content to be aired.
With many starting to purchase video contents from overseas, as it`s cheaper than to produce their own content to those less viewed channels.
I think that in 3 times we will be mostly the same, but as a precaution I`m planinng to take video contents direction classes next year just in case ; )